Mariais finally streaming on Netflix after months of Oscar buzz surroundingAngelina Jolie’s performance — but what are Jolie’s chances of finally winning Best Actress? AfterJackieandSpencer,Mariais director Pablo Larraín’s latest biopic chronicling the tragic life of a significant woman from 20th-century history, completing his unofficial trilogy. This one stars Jolie as opera singer Maria Callas, alongside Haluk Bilginer as Aristotle Onassis and Caspar Phillipson as John F. Kennedy.The trailer forMariadropped in September, and Jolie’s fans have been eagerly awaiting the film’s Netflix release ever since.
WhenMariapremiered at the 81st Venice International Film Festival earlier this year, it received mostly positive reviews, with critics singling out Jolie’s performance for particular praise. This has led to widespreadOscar buzz around Jolie’s turn inMaria. After being released in select theaters across the U.S. on November 27, the movie is now streaming on Netflix. Now that more people will be able to see it, that Oscar buzz should start to get a bit more mainstream. But what are Jolie’s odds of actually winning Best Actress for her turn inMaria?
Angelina Jolie Is A Predicted Best Actress Oscar Nominee For Maria - But She’s Not The Favorite To Win
Mikey Madison Has Better Odds To Be The 2025 Best Actress Winner
Jolie is one of the actors predicted to earn a Best Actress nomination at next year’s Oscars, but she’s not the favorite to win.The odds for the 2025 Best Actress nomineeswereposted by GoldDerby, who don’t actually accept bets on the Oscars despite posting odds for them. The current favorite to win Best Actress is Mikey Madison for her powerful turn as the titular sex worker who gets swept into a whirlwind romance in Sean Baker’s acclaimed dramedyAnora. GoldDerby puts Madison’s odds of winning Best Actress at 19/5, while Jolie is right behind her with 9/2 odds.
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Wicked
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Karla Sofía Gascón has 5/1 odds of scoring a Best Actress nod for the musical thrillerEmilia Pérez, Nicole Kidman has 8/1 odds of getting nominated for the romantic dramaBabygirl, and Cynthia Erivo has 10/1 odds of getting nominated for the blockbuster Broadway adaptationWicked.Jolie is ahead of those three actors in her chances at winning Best Actress forMaria, but she’s still a little behind Madison, who remains the favorite. DraftKings puts Madison’s odds at -160 to win. It’s clear that the industry has chosen a frontrunner, but it’s not over until Oscar night.
Maria’s Release On Netflix Could Improve Her Chances Of Winning Best Actress
More People Will See Maria When It Drops On Netflix
For the past few months, the only people who have been able to see Jolie’s performance inMariahave been industry elites who get to go to film festivals and audiences in the small handful of cities where it got a theatrical release. Now thatMariais streaming on Netflix, a lot more people will be able to see it.This kind of uptick has been seen in the past with previous Oscar contenders released by Netflix, likeMarriage Story,May December, andThe Power of the Dog.
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The buzz around Jolie’s performance should start to pick up when more casual viewers see the movie and start discussing it on social media. This online discussion should put Jolie’s Oscar buzz on par with the enthusiastic discourse aroundMadison’s performance inAnoraand Erivo’s performance inWicked. Jolie is one of the biggest movie stars in the world, andMariais her comeback role. When fans who have missed her in her absence get a chance to see it, the excitement around her Oscar prospects should take off.
What Angelina Jolie’s Oscars History Means For The 2025 Best Actress Race
Jolie Has Never Won Best Actress, But She’s A Legacy Pick
While this is Madison and Gascón’s first tangle with the Oscars, Jolie has a long history with the Academy. This is similar to her other Best Actress contenders; Erivo was already nominated for Best Actress and Best Original Song forHarriet, and Kidman has been nominated for Best Actress a grand total of four times (she was nominated forMoulin Rouge!,Rabbit Hole, andBeing the Ricardos, and she won forThe Hours) and Best Supporting Actress once (forLion). Jolie has been nominated in the Best Actress category before, butshe’s only ever won for Best Supporting Actress.
Jolie beat out iconic actors like Toni Collette and Catherine Keener when she won Best Supporting Actress.
Jolie won Best Supporting Actress forGirl, Interruptedin 2000, andshe was nominated for Best Actress forChangelingin 2009, but she lost to Kate Winslet forThe Reader. She also won the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award in 2014. At this point, it seems clear that Jolie will be nominated forMaria, but it’s unclear if she’ll win. There is a legacy angle that might entice the Academy to vote for Jolie. 2025 could either be the year thatAngelina Joliefinally wins Best Actress or the year she repeats the disappointment of her 2009 loss.
