UPDATE: 2025-08-14 08:05 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

The Monkey Exceeds Upper Bound Of Projected $13.5-$14 Million Range

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

The MonkeyandCaptain America: Brave New Worldare both topping the domestic box office chart with strong standings.The Monkeyis a new release horror movie adapted from the Stephen King short story of the same name by writer-director Osgood Perkins, who scored a runaway horror hit in 2024 with his serial killer thrillerLonglegs. In its debut weekend, its major competition was theCaptain America: Brave New Worldrelease, as the new Marvel Cinematic Universe movie, starring Anthony Mackie in the title role, debuted at No. 1 at the domestic box office with $88.8 million the previous weekend.

PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,The Monkeyis projected to debut at No. 2 at the domestic box officewith a 3-day total of$14.2 million. While it does not quite compare with the $22.4 million debut ofLonglegs, it is the second highest-grossing debut for distributor NEON, behind that previous Osgood Perkins title.

Meanwhile,Captain America: Brave New Worldis projected to maintain its position at No. 1with a sophomore weekend total of$28.3 million. This marks a week 2 drop of 68% that somewhat avoids the massive collapses experienced by the recent Marvel flopsThe Marvels(-78%) andAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania(-70%), even though it holds a B- CinemaScore, which is the MCU’s worst. Those 2023 titles had the two worst drops in the franchise’s history and both failed to break even in theaters. Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend:

1

$28.3 million

$141 million (weekend 2)

2

$14.2 million

$14.2 million (weekend 1)

3

$6.5 million

$25.2 million (weekend 2)

4

$5.9 million

$78.7 million (weekend 4)

5

$3 million

$14.7 million (weekend 2)

Elsewhere on the chart, there has not been too much movement. WhilePaddington in Peruhas been bumped to No. 3with a relatively gentle 49% drop during its sophomore weekend in domestic theaters, DreamWorks’Dog Manremains steadfastly at No. 4 with a 40% drop whileVarietyreports that the Chinese animated smash hitNe Zha 2is maintaining its place at No. 5 with a roughly 64% drop from its domestic debut.

However,Deadlinecontradicts that report, puttingNe Zha 2at No. 6 with $2.8 million, below theHeart Eyesrelease. The Valentine’s Day slasher is set to earn $3 million by the end of its third weekend in theaters. This is a 70% slump that makes sense considering the fact that the holiday around which it is themed has now been over for more than a week. Ultimately,it seems that both titles are still neck-and-neck, and their official ranking will likely not be known until Monday.

While horror movies typically drop 50% or more during their sophomore weekends,Heart Eyeshad an unprecedented week 2 rise of 19%, which is the third best for any slasher movie in history.

Where both publications agree is the fact that the new Zachary Levi inspirational dramaThe Unbreakable Boyhas fizzled out, debuting at No. 8 with just $2.5 million. It remains to be seen if the movie’s glowing 95% Rotten Tomatoes audience score translates into word-of-mouth success over the coming weeks.

What This Means For Captain America: Brave New World And The Monkey

One Is More On Track Than The Other

Both titles are skirting the records held by their predecessors, but the first2025 Marvel movieis in more of a dangerous position. Even thoughCaptain America: Brave New Worldavoided a major collapse, its reported $180 million budget means thatit likely needs to earn $450 million or more in theaters to break even. It will need to show a much stronger hold thanQuantumaniain order to achieve this, as that movie opened even higher with $106.1 million, dropped just 2% more in its sophomore weekend, and only grossed $476.1 million worldwide by the end of its run.

Because theaters keep half of ticket sales and production budgets do not include marketing costs, movies typically need to earn back two and a half times their price tags in order to break even.

Even though it debuted at No. 2,theMonkeyreleaseis on much stronger footing. The Osgood Perkins horror movie only comes with a reported budget of roughly $11 million, which likely places its break-even point around $27.5 million. Even if it doesn’t have as strong a hold asLonglegs, which had a powerful viral marketing campaign, the Stephen King adaptation, which stars Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, Sarah Levy, Adam Scott, and Elijah Wood, is stillon track to earn a solid gross that could exceed $40 million at the domestic box officealone.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Captain America Could Be Toppled Soon

At the rate that theCaptain America: Brave New Worldbox officeis dropping, it’s unclear how long it will maintain its position at No. 1. While the debut ofThe Monkeycould not defeat it, as it continues falling, it will be more likely that a similar mid-level title could do so. Its third weekend will see it competing with the survival thrillerLast Breath, followed by Bong Joon-ho’sMickey 17, then the action-comedyNovocaine. While none of those titles are tentpoles, if that CinemaScore begins to sink the MCU movie,any could become 2025’s newest No. 1 release.

The Monkey

Cast

The Monkey is a horror film focused on twin brothers who encounter a mysterious wind-up monkey responsible for a series of tragic events within their family. Twenty-five years later, the estranged brothers are compelled to face the cursed toy once again as it resumes its deadly rampage.

Captain America: Brave New World

Captain America: Brave New World (formerly titledNew World Order)marks Sam Wilson’s first MCU big-screen appearance as Steve Rogers' successor after receiving the suit and shield in Phase 4’s The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Anthony Mackie returns as the titular Avenger alongside Danny Ramirez as Joaquin Torres, Carl Lumby as Isaiah Bradley, and Tim Blake Nelson as The Incredible Hulk’s former ally Samuel Sterns. Harrison Ford makes his MCU debut replacing the late William Hurt as Thaddeus Ross.After meeting President Thaddeus Ross, Sam is caught in a global crisis. He must expose the mastermind behind a sinister plot before the world descends into turmoil. Captain America: Brave New World marks the big-screen debut of Sam Wilson as Captain America, and Harrison Ford makes his MCU debut, replacing the late William Hurt as Thaddeus Ross.