Ever since the Academy announced their Best Picture nominees for the2025 Oscars, theories have flown about which movie will win the top award, and currentlyConclaveseems to be an unexpected front-runner. Set to air on March 2, the 2025 Oscars have honored ten different movies ascontenders for Best Picture. AlongsideConclave,the other nominees includeAnora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance,andWicked.The competition is undoubtedly tough this year, yetConclaveis quickly proving that it is a favorite among voters.
Released in October 2024,Conclaveis a political thriller set inside the Vatican. The movie centers onRalph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence, one of many religious leaders who are tasked with choosing a new pope. Lawrence’s decision already has high stakes, but when he begins uncovering dark secrets about his peers and higher-ups, his belief in the Roman Catholic Church is shaken.Conclavehas fantastic critical ratings, boasting a Certified Fresh 93% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. However, most notably,Conclavehas earned a number of important awardsleading up to the Oscars.
Conclave Has Lots Of Momentum Heading Into The Oscars 2025
Why Conclave’s Wins Are So Important
AlthoughConclavepreviously failed to stand out asa front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar, recent award ceremonies have proven that the movie may come from behind and snag the top prize. In the past week, both the BAFTAs and the SAG awards premiered, andConclaveearned some incredible accolades. With 12 nominations at the BAFTAs,Conclavewon four awards, including Best Film and Outstanding British Film.Additionally, the movie won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the SAG awards. These wins have now putConclaveahead of its competition.
While the BAFTAs and the SAG awards are not the Oscars, and thus, cannot predict how that particular ceremony will go,Conclave’ssuccess shows that the movie has momentum among voters. Each award show has its own set of voters who have different priorities (for example, SAG covets acting over other categories), and the awards given out show where opinions lie. Based onConclave’swins, it seems that voters are recognizing the movie for its acting performances and its overall quality as a film. This is a trend that could easily continue on into the Oscars.
Conclave Has Slightly More Oscars Love Than Anora
How The Oscar’s Preferential Voting Makes A Difference
BeforeConclave’srecent wins, many believed thatAnorawas most likely to win Best Picture. The movie about a sex worker pulled into a whirlwind marriage is nominated for six Academy Awards and won notable prizes such as Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures at the Producers Guild of America Awards and Outstanding Directing – Feature Film at the Directors Guild of America Awards. Historically, these awards place a movie ahead in terms of the Oscars due to their similar pool of voters. Yet, once again,certain awards do not necessarily guarantee Oscar’s success, andConclaveexemplifies that.
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
ThoughAnorahas six Oscar nominations under its belt,Conclavehas eight. This difference may seem arbitrary, but in reality, it denotesa slight preference forConclaveoverAnora.This is extremely important becausethe Oscar’s voting system relies heavily on preference.Voters are tasked with listing out their preferences for the winner of each category rather than naming just one choice. Based onConclave’srecent wins and its surplus of Oscar noms, it could be thatConclaveis simply preferred overAnora.A tiny distinction in opinion could be what putsConclaveon top, despiteAnora’slong-running popularity.
Conclave Is A More Typical Oscar Winner Than Anora
How Conclave Stacks Up Against Previous Best Picture Winners
Another element that givesConclavean edge overAnorais its sense of tradition. Best Picture nominees and winners are certainly not all the same, but there are specific types of stories that may seem safer or more natural for Academy Award voters. Arguably,Conclavehas that more traditional makeup, as it includes a very serious story, a star-studded cast of established actors,and a classic form of storytelling and cinematography. On the other hand,Anorais far grittier and includes some subject matter that could be deemed too risqué for a Best Picture winner.
10 Best Picture Winners That Didn’t Remain Popular After Their Win
Despite winning one of the biggest awards in the industry, a handful of Best Picture winners have become less popular since taking home the award.
This idea is proven fairly well by theBest Picture winners of years past. In the last five years, the Best Picture winners includeOppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All At Once, CODA,andNomadland.WhileEEAAOdefinitely stands out as a more unconventional winner, the other four picks definitely fit into the box of serious, straightforward drama. To be clear, these types of movies are not bad by any means, and the above picks absolutely deserved their wins. However,Anoramay fall to the wayside in favor of a more traditional pick.
Anora Is Still The Best Picture Favorite Heading Into The Oscars 2025
Anora May Repeat A Legendary Oscar Snub
Conclavehas certainly made a strong case for itself, butAnorais still the favorite to win Best Picture. Mainly, this is because of its Producers Guild of America award, Directors Guild of America award, Writers Guild of America Award, and Critics' Choice award for Best Picture. In the past, movies that have won all four of these accolades have almost always gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So, even ifConclaveis a rising favorite among voters,Anoramay still beat out its competitors by virtue of collecting the top awards of the season.
Notably,Brokeback Mountain’sloss is considered to be one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history.
Of course, there isa chance thatAnorawill not win Best Pictureat the Oscars, despite its previous successes. Though it is set up to win based on how past award ceremonies have worked, there have been times when a movie won the PGA, DGA, WGA, and Critics' Choice awards yet did not get the Best Picture win. Thelast time this happened was at the 2006 Oscars forBrokeback Mountain.Notably,Brokeback Mountain’sloss is considered to be one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history. Unfortunately,Anoracould repeat this disappointing loss.
What Awards To Watch For On Oscar Night To Help Determine Best Picture
Which Categories Are Conclave & Anora Facing Off In
For those who are particularly invested inthis year’s Oscar race, looking at who wins certain award categories at the Oscars can help in predicting who will win Best Picture at the end of the night.Two categories that are often won by Best Picture winners are Best Editingand Best Screenplay/Best Adapted Screenplay. For the past two years, the movie that won Best Editing also ended up winning Best Picture. Of course, these categories are not a guarantee, but they could indicate where the Academy’s preferences lie.
Furthermore, it is helpful to look at the categories whereConclaveandAnoraare facing off. Unfortunately,the only category shared by both movies that is not Best Picture is Film Editing. Thus, that will be audiences' only hint at where the Best Picture award will go. Other than that, the top prize could be a complete surprise. In this way, the2025 Oscarsis gearing up to be an exciting and tough competition.
